The Premium Has Collapsed. (Good)
For the last three years, the watch market was irrational. You had crypto-millionaires paying $50,000 for a $14,000 Daytona. That bubble didn’t just burst; it evaporated.
As we approach the end of 2025, we are seeing a Market Correction. The speculators have exited, leaving the market to the collectors and the strategists.
Current data from WatchCharts and Bloomberg indicates that secondary market prices on “Blue Chip” Rolex models are down nearly 15-20% from their 2022 peaks. Conversely, Rolex Retail (MSRP) prices are expected to climb another 4-7% in January 2026.
This creates a closing window: The Arbitrage Gap is shrinking.
The Spec Sheet: Retail vs. Grey Market (Nov 2025)
To understand the play, you have to look at the “Spread” – the difference between what the Authorized Dealer (AD) charges and what you pay to get it today.
Specifications
| Model | 2025 Retail (MSRP) | Grey Market Price (Est.) | The “Spread” |
|---|---|---|---|
| Submariner Date (126610LN) | ~$10,250 | ~$13,500 | +32% (Low Premium) |
| GMT-Master II “Pepsi” | ~$10,900 | ~$21,000 | +92% (Still High) |
| Explorer I (40mm) | ~$7,700 | ~$8,200 | +6% (Near Parity) |
| Daytona (Panda) | ~$15,100 | ~$32,000 | +111% (Speculative) |
The Strategy: Buy the “Safe” Assets
The Explorer I is currently trading almost at retail. If you factor in local sales tax, buying it “Grey” (New in Box) is effectively the same price as buying it from a boutique, but without the 12-month waitlist. This is a Buy.
The Submariner Date is trading at a historic low premium (~30%). Historically, the Submariner is the “Gold Standard” of retention. Buying now at ~$13.5k is a defensive play. It is unlikely to drop below $12k, giving you a solid floor.
The Avoid: Do not touch the Daytona unless you are holding for 10+ years. A 111% premium is still too frothy for a mass-produced steel watch.
The Apex Verdict
If you have been waiting on the sidelines since 2021, now is your entry point.
We expect Rolex to announce a price hike in January 2026. If MSRP goes up 7%, the “Grey Market” floor will rise with it. You are effectively buying the dip before the inflation adjustment.
The Assets (Pros)
Immediate Liquidity: You get the watch tomorrow, not in “2 years.”
Lower Volatility: The speculators are gone; prices are stable.
MSRP Hedge: Buying now locks in 2025 pricing before the 2026 hike.
Currency: The US Dollar is strong right now against the Swiss Franc (CHF), keeping imports reasonable.
The Liabilities (Cons)
No “AD Relationship”: Buying Grey builds no history with the boutique for future allocations.
Warranty: You lose roughly 6-12 months of the 5-year warranty (depending on when the original card was stamped).
The “Pepsi” Risk: The GMT-Master II premium is still dangerously high.
The Buy Case: Buy a Submariner Date or Explorer immediately. The spread is thin enough to justify the convenience.
The Pass Case: Pass on the Daytona or Sky-Dweller. The premiums are still detached from reality. Wait for another 10% drop.
Final Thought: A Rolex is only an investment if you buy it right. In 2022, you were buying the hype. In 2026, you are buying the heritage.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, legal, or professional advice. Please consult a qualified professional before making investment or purchase decisions.
Luca Moretti is a dedicated horologist and style consultant based between New York and Milan. An advocate for the ‘Quiet Luxury’ philosophy, Luca helps executives build timeless, investment-grade wardrobes. He specializes in high-horology (watches), bespoke tailoring, and the art of travel. He believes that true style is about quality, not logos.
